Latest Status Update

SUMMARY:

If you have any questions: Please contact Lt Col Garman, IC, wgarman@flwg.gov

·Tropical Depression #11 was upgraded to Tropical Storm Joaquin, the 10th named storm of the season, at 11pm Monday night.

·TS Joaquin is approximately 580 miles east of Lake Worth, Florida, and moving west at 5mph.

·This continued slow westward motion should continue during the next 36 hours, before slowing down and turning toward the west-northwest.

·On Thursday, an increase in forward motion and a turn to the north is expected as it interacts with an approaching cold front.

·Steady strengthening is also expected this week. Although the official forecast keeps Joaquin a tropical storm, computer models suggest that it is possible that Joaquin could strengthen into a hurricane.

·The low pressure system over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico between Tampa and Apalachicola, designated Invest Area 99L, continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and portions of the southeastern United States.

·Strong upper-level winds will likely prevent any further development of this system before it moves inland over the northern Gulf coast later today, and the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft scheduled for today has been canceled.

·As a result, the National Hurricane Center has decreased the chance of tropical cyclone formation to 10% (low).

·Further east, a large area of disturbed weather over the central Atlantic is associated with a frontal trough and the remnants of Ida.

·Some slow development of this system is possible later this week while it moves slowly west-northwestward.

·The National Hurricane Center is forecasting a 10% (low) chance of formation over the next 2 days, but a 40% (medium) chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 5 days.

Florida Outlook:

·No direct impacts to Florida are expected from T.S. Joaquin. A slight increase in wave heights along the East Coast is possible through Friday.

·The impacts of Invest 99L to Florida will largely remain the same regardless of whether or not it becomes a tropical cyclone.

·Impacts for Florida will be felt through Wednesday night.

·8-12” of rain had already fallen over portions of the Florida Panhandle. An additional 1-2” of rain is possible statewide over the next 48 hours. A Flood Watch in effect for the coastal counties of West Central Florida.

·Waterspouts and isolated tornadoes are also possible hazards with this system today, but the threat is less than yesterday.

·Strong rip currents are expected along entire Gulf Coast today with breaking waves of 1-3 feet.

·Tides along the Panhandle coast will continue to average about a foot above normal.

·Higher than normal tides are also expected along the Florida East Coast due to lunar influences and onshore winds.

·The next name on the 2015 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone List is Kate.

·This will be the last briefing packet issued on 99L. Another packet will be issued if a tropical threat to Florida increases.

For more information on this system visit the NHC website at www.nhc.noaa.gov